Why the Christmas football fixtures will sort the title-chasing men from the boys

By Martin Lipton in Laptop with Martin Lipton

Published 16:41 23/12/10

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Time for the biggest test. Time for the real depth of the Premier League squads to be shown. Time for truth.

Christmas may mean time off for most of the country but four high intensity games in 11 days will tell us a great deal about the eventual destination of the title battle.

With the exception of Monday's game at the Emirates, where Chelsea aim to continue their Indian sign over Arsenal, there are not too many titanic clashes.

But it is the sheer wear and tear that makes a mark when the games come so think and fast, the bumps, bruises and strains that add up to managers having to play mix and match to get a team on the pitch, picking the matches where they can rest those who would normally have to play.

And looking at the current top five - who are likely to finish as the top five as well - it does look like the team at summit may well emerge from the maelstrom with their credentials not only intact, but bolstered.

United host improving Sunderland on Boxing Day, followed by trips to Birmingham and West Brom before welcoming Stoke to Old Trafford.

All four threaten to be tough, bruising encounters. Sunderland showed at Chelsea last month they deserve to be taken seriously, Birmingham do not tend to lose at St Andrews, Roberto Di Matteo's Baggies have already held United to a draw this season while Stoke are always exactly what it says on the packet.

But United's strength, one that none of their rivals can truly claim, is that priceless ability to chisel out wins when they are not thoroughly deserved.

Remember, Fergie and his men are top of the table despite the fact that Wayne Rooney has not scored a goal in open play for United since March. That, surely, has to change. He is too good a player for it to continue inexorably. The goals will come, with Christmas the perfect time for him to start delivering the presents.

Chelsea and Arsenal are the late starters, playing the only game on Monday.

Carlo Ancelotti's side then tackle Bolton and Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge before travelling to Wolves, while Arsenal face visits to Wigan and Birmingham before perhaps the other key clash of the period against Manchester City.

That final game of the whole frenzied Christmas list could prove to be the one that has real long-term ramifications.

By the time they arrive at the Emirates, City will have gone to Newcastle and played Villa and Blackpool at Eastlands, while Spurs, still the outsiders of the quintet despite their remarkable Champions League efforts, start at Villa Park before welcoming Newcastle and Fulham to White Hart Lane and then finish at Everton.

In other years, Chelsea would look at such fixtures with relish, assuming a win at Arsenal, six points at home and then momentum carrying them over the line at Molineux.

This is not like other years, though. Chelsea, remember, have not won in five, have dropped 15 points out of 21, look more vulnerable than ever before.

Ancelotti claimed the draw at Spurs was the turning point but the chance to demonstrate that against United was lost to the snow which fell on London at the weekend and while Frank Lampard will have had an extra eight days to build himself up to match fitness, he cannot have match sharpness after four months out.

At 32, asking Lampard to rush back into four flat-out games would be a genuine risk for the rest of the season. It means his contribution will have to be balanced out - but we have all seen what Chelsea are without Lampard.

Arsenal's two home game provide hard covers book-ending a series of games that may end their bid for good unless they show real strength of character.

Lose to Chelsea and Arsene Wenger's side will have been beaten six times before the half-way point of the season, surely too many defeats for them to emerge as champions, with the damage likely to stretch into the following games.

City, despite blowing their chance of being Christmas Number One, know that they have a real opportunity to prove their desire and while lack of game-time has added to the mood of in-fighting among some of Roberto Mancini's players, this is where the benefits of a real squad start to tell.

The likes of Joleon Lescott, Adam Johnson, Patrick Vieira, even Jo and Emmanuel Adebayor are likely to feature, with points to prove to the manager and points to win for the club.

As for Spurs, long-standing Tottenham fans will tell you that it is at this stage, when they are truly in the mix, that the club traditionally cocks it up.

Emerge from Christmas with nine points and they will look serious contenders. The normal Spurs thing, though, would be to win one, draw two and lose the fourth.

United, on the other hand, could win all four. If they even pick up 10 points, it will be hard to see anyone stopping them. Fergie knows that too. It is why he will be demanding an effort that can shape the rest of the campaign. Let battle commence.

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