Why we should expect the unexpected in the Premier League this Christmas - Martin Lipton's Big Lunchtime Read

By Martin Lipton in Laptop with Martin Lipton

Published 11:44 23/12/09

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The weather outside is frightful; the football has been delightful...

Well, maybe not, but I cannot remember the last time I looked at a Christmas fixture list and could feel so uncertain over what is going to happen.

Rarely, if ever in the recent Premier League years, have the big four looked so vulnerable, so inconsistent.

Chelsea, true, customarily have a winter wobble, and this season's is right up there.

Ever since Carlo Ancelotti's Blues destroyed Arsenal at the Emirates last month, they have somehow managed to lose all the intensity and conviction that looked set to blow all their rivals - at home and abroad - apart.

But where last season Manchester United's response to Chelsea's travails under Luis Felipe Scolari was to embark on a relentless run in which they did not concede a goal until the title was virtually in their grasp, and Liverpool girded their loins for battle, this time round it has been very different.

Watching United capitulate at Fulham last weekend, when the 3-0 scoreline flattered the losers, not the winners, was a remarkable event.

No matter that Sir Alex Ferguson's squad is ravaged by injury - and the Scot forlornly declares there is no light at the end of the long tunnel - it was hard to reconcile the events being played out in front of my eyes with the knowledge that it really was Manchester United, Wayne Rooney, Michael Owen, Paul Scholes and all, wearing those red shirts and redder faces.

Liverpool's nightmare under Rafa Benitez plunged to new depths at Fratton Park, their fall to eighth making even the most loyal of Koppites start to harbour doubts.

And even though Arsenal's response to that humbling at the hands of Didier Drogba has been a four game unbeaten run, dropping two points at Burnley could be the pivotal result of the four.

So who is benefiting? Bizarrely, despite their problems, Chelsea, who have doubled their lead over United to four points over the past 10 days despite winning just once.

And, of course, two of the three sides seeking to break open the established cartel at the top.

Aston Villa's trip to the Emirates on Sunday might be the biggest game of the Christmas break, either proving to Martin O'Neill's men that they are the real deal, or casting them back in to the doubts that cost them dear in last season's run-in.

Last term, with Gabriel Agbonlahor leading the line, Villa shocked Arsene Wenger's side with a fully deserved 2-0 victory which seemed to signal they were ready to make the breakthrough.

It was a false impression but this time round, on the back of four straight wins, O'Neill takes his side back to North London knowing they can send out a message of genuine intent.

Along the Seven Sisters Road, Spurs, too - covert trips to Dublin nightclubs notwithstanding - have bounced back in style from their shock upset by Wolves.

The wins over Manchester City - which tipped Mark Hughes over the edge - and, in the sort of climactic conditions under which Spurs normally fold like a pack of cards, at Blackburn, were indicative of a side that has, perhaps, lost its cultural cringe.

Backing that up at Craven Cottage on Boxing Day - a ground where they rarely win and lost, courtesy of a spectacular Heurelho Gomes moment last term - would be a further step forward, and, if only for 24 hours, take them into third.

Should they do so, then the pressure on Liverpool to beat Wolves - three wins out of three when Mick McCarthy plays his first team, remember - will intensify yet further, especially if Roberto Mancini can get his Eastlands reign off to a flying start.

A five-way scrap for third and fourth would be terrific for the game but the battle to get into the Champions League slots is not the only place where the Christmas scrutiny will lie.

West Ham's game with Portsmouth gives both of them the chance to get out of the bottom three - for Pompey, for the first time in a campaign when they have been basement dwellers from the first weekend - with the losers looking even more forlorn.

And with another full fixture list spread over Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the table at both ends could look very different by New Year's Day.

That is what makes the next few days so interesting, so riveting.

For once, Christmas football could be full of twists and turns. In this Premier League, we are learning only to expect the unexpected.

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