Premier League goal glut explained: Why nets are bulging more than ever before

By Steve Anglesey in Mirror Football Blog

Published 18:17 28/09/09

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The Premier League hype machine dictates that every new season must be referred to as the most exciting yet, but this time around the statistics indicate it really might be true.

High-scoring classics like the Manchester derby and Bolton's last-minute 3-2 win at Portsmouth, coupled with ruthless demolitions - see Liverpool's 6-1 humbling of Hull on Saturday or Arsenal's rout by the same score at Goodison Park on opening day, make this a record campaign for goals.

So far teams are scoring an average of 2.95 goals per game - the highest total in Premier League history by some distance. By contrast, the average last term was a mere 2.48 gpg and the previous record, set in 1999-00, was just 2.79 gpg. Seven teams this season have a goalscoring rate of two or more per game. Last season, just three teams managed that feat and the previous high this centurty is five in 2003/04.

But what's behind the goal explosion? Here are some suggestions.

The draw is dead (for now)

Before Monday night's match at Eastlands, there had been only four draws in 65 Premier League games this season - an average of 6%. That is an astonishing figure considering the previous low, again in 1999-00, was 20%. By contrast 30% of all Premier League games last season ended in a draw - so there have only been a fifth of the number of draws. Meanwhile draws at running at 15% in La Liga and 22% in Serie A.

Statistical analysts employed by our friends at Football Scientists say the trend is a blip which will correct itself, but for now there have been some pleasant consequences - one Sunday newspaper claimed this weekend that the nation's bookies were a combined £7million down on the season so far because most people tend to back winners rather than draws.

Rafa Benitez has wised up

After seven home draws wrecked the Reds' best title chance in nearly two decades, their Spanish manager has thrown off the shackles this season. Playing two holding midfielders at Anfield is a thing of the past and Liverpool's 22 goal-haul in their opening seven league games this season is higher than at any time since 1895.

Rafa's side have scored an average of 3.14 goals per game, easily surpassing Manchester City (2.20 gpg), Chelsea (2.29 gpg) and Manchester United (2.43 gpg). It's a huge leap on City's league-leading 2.57 gpg average this time last season.

Arsene Wenger's Arsenal are also big contributors to the goal glut. Averaging three goals per game, a total of 12 goals were scored in the first two games of the season - a far cry from last year when they opened with a 1-0 win and a 1-0 defeat.

It's all in the ball

Again, there's always plenty of hype when the Premier League starts to use a new football and much of it is overstated. But the modifications in Nike's T90 Ascente do favour forwards.

Each of the ball's panels is designed to carry the same amount of pressure, creating - say Nike - a sweet spot wherever you strike it. That means greater shooting accuracy.

Wind tunnel tests also show the T90 Ascente carries two ball lengths further than the old ball - a small but notable 2.4% - when kicked with the same velocity.

Attack from defence

Full backs seem to be flying forward this season more regularly than ever this season even when the defences they're supposed to be protecting aren't exactly rock-solid. Look at Manchester City's Micah Richards, still attacking deep into Fergie Time at Old Trafford. Or Kieran Richardson, converted to a defender at Sunderland by Steve Bruce but continuing to do much of his work in the opposition half.

Their presence creates more opportunities up front but also leaves gaps at the back, with Portsmouth's attack-minded Nadir Belhadj regularly exposed this season after impressing last term.

Smaller clubs are throwing caution to the wind

After aggressive, attacking Stoke stayed up last year, even the littler guys are learning to be less nervous and cautious.

Look at the way Wolves reacted after clawing back Sunderland's two-goal lead in Sunday. When Kevin Doyle made it 2-2 with 35 minutes left, many supporters expected Mick McCarthy's team to attempt to shut up shop and come away with a point. Instead, they carried on attacking and eventually shipped five goals.

It didn't work for Wolves, but it did for Bolton at Birmingham. Gary Megson surely couldn't have been blamed even by his worst detractors at Bolton if he had settled for a draw when Kevin Phillips equalised for Blues scored late on. Instead he urged his team forward and was rewarded with Chung-Yong Lee's late winner.

Megson might not be flavour of the month at the Reebok but he has learned the value of goals. Only three were scored in Bolton's first three games of the season but after Bolton suffered late heartbreak in a 3-2 defeat to Liverpool at the end of August, there have been 14 goals in the four games since. In which, crucially, Wanderers are unbeaten.

The weak are getting weaker

The presence of some outstandingly poor defences in this season's Premier League could also be skewing the figures slightly. Hull have shipped 19 goals in their seven games so far, an average of 2.71 conceded per game. By contrast West Brom, bottom of the table last season, conceded only 1.76 goals per game. Even the dreadful Derby side which finished 2007-08 with 11 points only conceded at a rate of 2.34 goals per game.

Meanwhile Wigan, Wolves and Portsmouth are all conceding at a rate of 1.85 gpg and Burnley have managed to accumulate nine points while allowing 15 goals - more than two per game.

Thanks to our friends at Football Scientists and Opta

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