Why I think Villa will sell Ashley Young next month

By James Nursey

Published 10:00 23/12/10

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First it was Gareth Barry, then it was James Milner and now I believe Aston Villa fans must steel themselves for the exit of Ashley Young.

And it may well be a lot earlier than supporters, owner Randy Lerner and manager Gerard Houllier would dread to think - like next month even.

No doubt some fans will accuse me of scare-mongering.

But I hope they bear in mind I did accurately predict in July both Martin O'Neill and Milner's exits the following month .

I also revealed Spurs' summer interest in Young and wrote previously in October why I doubted the England international would sign a new contract at Villa this season despite claims from the club he was on the verge of committing his future.

Young's possible transfer to White Hart Lane never materialised as Spurs wouldn't break their rigid wage structure to give the versatile attacking star a better deal than the current £62,000-a-week he earns.

It left Young disillusioned with both his agent at the time and Tottenham, who raised his hopes of a transfer both the last two summers only to dash them by refusing to pay both his price tag and personal demands.

Now Young has swapped agents and all the signs suggest the star now also wishes to change clubs.

For example, I reported recently he has given up renting a house in Stourbridge and now commutes from his Hertfordshire home.

And, crucially, the balance of power to determine Young's future has now swung firmly in the player's favour.

So he is in a much stronger bargaining position to lever his way out of the Midlands club.

For starters, Villa are struggling badly and are nearer the bottom of the Premier League than the top.

Given Young's aspirations, it is hardly a convincing time for new Villa manager Gerard Houllier stand in his way and insist the club are going places.

The player himself has also put the club under huge pressure to sell by breaking off contract talks until the summer when he will have just 12 months left on his contract.

Then Villa will not be able to command as high a transfer fee for Young,25, who they bought in January 2007 from Watford for £9.65m.

And realistically it is going to be almost impossible to retain Young if Liverpool or Manchester United, two suitors, come in for him next month with a bid.

If either of those clubs firm up their initial interest, Young is certainly going to want to leave.

Because then we will be in another Barry/Milner situation where it is prudent business sense for Villa to sell if the player is refusing to sign a new contract as his price tag is just decreasing all the time.

Villa bowed to pressure eventually to cash in on Barry and Milner to Man City in similar scenarios.

They have fought off interest previously in Young by persuading him to stay with a pay-rise in 2009 to make him the club's highest earner.

But the club and ex-manager Martin O'Neill begged him to remain in the hope of future silverware at Villa which has not materialised.

And sadly clubs like Villa can only stand in a player's way of leaving for so long.

Of course what Young says publicly and thinks privately are two entirely different things.

But fans must admit his claims to have loved every minute at Villa and never considered leaving are completely at odd with the actions above.

Young's body language on the pitch has also become increasingly frustrated as Villa have struggled.

And his request to play off the striker in the hole rather than on the wing smacks of a star wanting glory for himself to get a move rather than helping the team by playing wide where I think he most effective.

So I genuinely believe Young wants to land a move to a big five club next month.

But should it not materialise, the odds will still be stacked against him staying in the summer.

I know where I shall put my money - and it may help pay off the festive bills!

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