Still unbeaten, how high can Newcastle rise this season?
Alan Pardew was asked the questions that football fans around the country started posing last night.
How high can Newcastle United go? How long will this extraordinary unbeaten run last? What is a realistic finishing target for the Geordies?
Of course we didn’t get a clear answer.
Pardew said something about the only immediate aim being Everton at home in the early kick off on Saturday. He requested a “full house” of 52,000 from the Geordie public, “because the players deserve that recognition”.
He expressed his wish to stay unbeaten in that game too – extending the run to 11 league games this season and 14 dating back to the last campaign – United’s best run for 61 years.
Football managers are never stupid enough to admit where they’d really like to finish. Or milk the good times because they know that at some point, as Pardew says: “Football will bite you on the bum.”
Why create a hostage to fortune so early in the season, unless you are Manchester City, Man United or Chelsea and are expected to win the league.
Since the good times began to roll again on Tyneside, Pardew has taken the journey back to respectability for this club step by step, setting small new challenges and constantly asking fresh questions of his team before each match.
So far the answers on the pitch have all been positive, bar the Carling Cup defeat to Blackburn last week.
Behind the scenes top ten is the base-line target set by the likes of owner Mike Ashley and MD Derek Llambias.
So it is left to us ponder whether Newcastle can really sustain their refreshing, unlikely rise to the top.
Well, top four is, in the long run,surely out of the question.
Some fans point to the job Everton did in 2004-05 in finishing in the Champions’ League places with a small, hard working, talented squad and ask why not?
But that would be unrealistic given the big three currently there and the form of Spurs, and playing resources of Liverpool and possibly Arsenal.
So enjoy the sight of the Geordies in third place this week, a point behind Manchester United, while it lasts. In fact if they beat Everton on Saturday Newcastle will be second for a few hours. Crazy talk.
After the Everton game a trio of matches against the rest of the top four will be a stern test.
How about top six then? Again, that would be a push. It would mean displacing the likes of Arsenal or Liverpool over 38 games, clubs with double United’s wage bill.
Most realistic is seventh or eighth spot. That would represent a fantastic achievement. Seventh could scrape into Europe too, a medium term aim of the club, and players.
The uncertainties and pitfalls of trying to guess how the rest of the season will pan out leaves predictions at this stage a perilous business.
But given the size of Newcastle’s home crowds and the fact they won consecutive seasons in Europe, including a Champions’ League campaign and a UEFA Cup quarter final in the last decade, top eight isn’t too much to ask.
Pardew will need a good run of injuries to do that. He has had the luxury of choosing the same defence ten times this season, and it shows in their understanding together. Take out one of the centre backs, a weak spot in terms of strength in depth, and vulnerability could appear.
The midfield is better resourced. Hatem Ben Arfa still can’t get a start, but when he does he will be a potent weapon. That’s as long as he doesn’t cause any trouble with his frustrations at not breaking back into the team.
There is also pressure on the wingers from Sylvain Marveaux, a ready made youngster capable of stepping in.
Leon Best is doing well at centre forward, but is pressured by Shola Ameobi when he is fit. Likewise Demba Ba whose strike rate of eight in four league games up there with the top marksmen.
So yes, the squad is thin, but as the excellent Danny Guthrie proved at Stoke, unsung heroes are ready to take their chance even when key players like Cheik Tiote get injured.
Of course we don’t know whether the January transfer market will be a threat or an opportunity.
Every player has his price. Will Fabricio Coloccini attract a £15 million bid? Will Tiote, who l will predict now could be sold in the summer, be flogged earlier if someone comes calling with £20 million?
Buy ‘em young and cheap, sell ‘em at a massive profit is the policy so Pardew will want to get through January unscathed... .and with Modibo Maiga added to his squad from Sochaux.
For now there is no point in fretting about the future.
The present is giving Geordies, and hopefully a few neutrals, plenty of pleasure.
It is good for the Premier League to have Newcastle United mixing it at the top.
They are a box office club at the moment, deserving their moment in the limelight.
For all the right reasons.
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