I hope the Co-op Final will be close... but fear it won't be

I sincerely hope this afternoon’s Co-operative Insurance Cup Final turns out to be a much closer contest than has been predicted.

St Mirren have earned the right to compete in the Final because of their difficult route, having knocked out Kilmarnock, Motherwell and Hearts along the way.

Rangers didn’t have to conquer SPL opposition until the semi-final – but of course, they have already beaten the Buddies four times this season.

In fact, a St Mirren win at Hampden would be one of the greatest upsets for a long time.

Of the last 18 fixtures between these two sides, Rangers have ended up victorious in 15, with two draws and just one defeat some 17 months ago.

Gus MacPherson’s team have failed to score in three out of their last five games against the Ibrox giants, so the odds are very much stacked against them.

All the talk this week of St Mirren repeating their Cup win of 1987 has been most entertaining… but hopelessly misplaced, because whenever Dundee United made it to Hampden they always lost anyway.

Today’s clash reminds me of the 2004/05 Final, when my own Motherwell side took on Rangers. After a glorious first five minutes we found ourselves a goal down – and two behind four minutes later.

We pulled one back almost immediately, but Rangers had the bit between their teeth and ended up thumping us 5-1.

It was humiliating.

St Mirren cannot afford the same sort of disastrous opening to the game, and must try to contain Kris Boyd and co for as long as possible.

That solitary recent win over Gers was achieved through luck, excellent teamwork and an opportunist strike from Stephen McGinn – who has since departed the country. In fact over half the starting XI have left the club since that sunny Sunday afternoon in October 2008, but in a one-off cup tie there is always hope for the underdog.

Rangers will be highly confident of securing the first part of a domestic treble, yet the SPL leaders are vulnerable – and did concede three goals to Dundee United in last week’s Scottish Cup quarter-final.

The Tangerines’ equaliser highlighted a potential weakness from set-plays, and if the delivery is right then any lapse in concentration could be punished.

Sadly, I can’t see the game being open and free-flowing, as MacPherson will surely try to frustrate the favourites as much as possible by filling any holes with as many men as he can.

I just hope the outcome remains in doubt for as long as possible, because I don’t want the St Mirren fans to have to go through the same embarrassment as we all did at Motherwell.

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williamhill.com

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